10.1b1 Birth, Death, and Fertility Rates

The birth rate is calculated as the average number of births each year per 1,000 persons. The 2021 U.S. birth rate was 12.22 births per 1,000 people. The U.S. birth rate ranks 145^th globally, which means that 144 countries have higher birth rates (Central Intelligence Agency, 2024a).

The death rate is calculated as the average number of deaths per year per 1,000 persons (Central Intelligence Agency, 2024b). The U.S. death rate is 8.5 deaths per 1,000 persons (Central Intelligence Agency, 2024b). For context, the U.S. death rate declined by 54% between 1900 and 2010 because of improved prevention and treatment of infectious diseases (Tippett, 2014). The U.S. death rate increased between 2018. This increase is a result of deaths from COVID-19 and rising numbers of deaths for people who are younger (aged 25-44) from drugs, alcohol, suicides, homicides, and injuries (Woolf, 2024).

Other factors influencing the population size in a geographic area include fertility rates and migration (people moving to a new country and leaving) (see Chapter 9). The total fertility rate refers to the “average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age” (Central Intelligence Agency, 2021). The United States’ total fertility rate is 1.84 (see Figure 10.4) (Central Intelligence Agency, 2024c). In other words, U.S. women have an average of 1.84 children over their lifetime, less than the replacement level (2.1 children). A total fertility rate of 1.84 means there are fewer births than needed to replace the people who die or emigrate from the United States.